tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → San Diego via Chicago: arrives on time 16%

  1. 19:05 CLT → 20:10 MDW
    WN 1513 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 35% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:10 MDW → 23:25 SAN
    WN 2884 · Southwest · 4h 15m · 52% on time, 8.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Charlotte). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection35%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 65% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (35%) × second flight not cancelled (8.8% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip7h 20mCLT 19:05 to SAN 23:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.