tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Des Moines → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 44%

  1. 15:45 DSM → 17:05 MDW
    WN 1524 · Southwest · 1h 20m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 30m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:35 MDW → 22:15 PHX
    WN 2863 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 48% on time, 8.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Des Moines). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 165 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 30m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (8.0% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip8h 30mDSM 15:45 to PHX 22:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.