tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Los Angeles via San Francisco: arrives on time 13%

  1. 10:05 MDW → 12:35 SFO
    WN 1546 · Southwest · 4h 30m · 12% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 40m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:15 SFO → 15:45 LAX
    WN 278 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 20% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 55 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 40m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (20%).
Total trip7h 40mMDW 10:05 to LAX 15:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.