tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Burbank via San Francisco: arrives on time 20%

  1. 10:05 MDW → 12:35 SFO
    WN 1546 · Southwest · 4h 30m · 12% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 30m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:05 SFO → 15:25 BUR
    WN 3638 · Southwest · 1h 20m · 39% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 45 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 30m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (39%).
Total trip7h 20mMDW 10:05 to BUR 15:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.