tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Oakland via Las Vegas: arrives on time 35%

  1. 17:30 DEN → 18:30 LAS
    WN 1564 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 51% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:50 LAS → 21:20 OAK
    WN 4270 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 1 h behind Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip4h 55mDEN 17:30 to OAK 21:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.