tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Sacramento via Chicago: arrives on time 8%

  1. 17:35 DEN → 21:00 MDW
    WN 1604 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 27% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 MDW → 00:20 SMF +1 day
    WN 4121 · Southwest · 4h 25m · 42% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 1 h behind Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection21%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 79% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time8%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (21%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip7h 40mDEN 17:35 to SMF 00:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.