tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Des Moines via Chicago: arrives on time 13%

  1. 17:35 DEN → 21:00 MDW
    WN 1604 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 27% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:05 MDW → 23:30 DSM
    WN 4277 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 43% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h ahead of Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 20 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection29%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 71% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (29%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (43%).
Total trip4h 55mDEN 17:35 to DSM 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.