tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Norfolk via Baltimore: arrives on time 21%

  1. 18:50 MIA → 21:30 BWI
    WN 1624 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 40% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:35 BWI → 23:35 ORF
    WN 1040 · Southwest · 1h 00m · 53% on time, 8.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (8.6% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip4h 45mMIA 18:50 to ORF 23:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.