tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Louisville via Baltimore: arrives on time 17%

  1. 18:50 MIA → 21:30 BWI
    WN 1624 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 40% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:25 BWI → 00:30 SDF +1 day
    WN 156 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 61% on time, 10.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection32%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 68% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time17%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (32%) × second flight not cancelled (10.5% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip5h 20mMIA 18:50 to SDF 00:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.