tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Richmond via Baltimore: arrives on time 16%

  1. 18:50 MIA → 21:30 BWI
    WN 1624 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 40% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 BWI → 23:38 RIC
    WN 2353 · Southwest · 58m · 37% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (37%).
Total trip4h 48mMIA 18:50 to RIC 23:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.