tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Reno via Phoenix: arrives on time 20%

  1. 18:55 DEN → 19:50 PHX
    WN 1683 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 29% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:50 PHX → 22:35 RNO
    WN 4781 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 70% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 1 h behind Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 23 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection29%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 71% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (29%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 40mDEN 18:55 to RNO 22:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.