tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → San Francisco via Phoenix: arrives on time 14%

  1. 21:00 DEN → 22:00 PHX
    WN 1684 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 40% on time, 3.5% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:50 PHX → 00:55 SFO +1 day
    WN 1098 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 23 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection25%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 75% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time14%First flight not cancelled (3.5% are) × connection made (25%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip4h 55mDEN 21:00 to SFO 00:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.