tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Houston via Nashville: arrives on time 15%

  1. 18:05 SDF → 17:55 BNA
    WN 1712 · Southwest · 50m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:55 BNA → 21:02 HOU
    WN 534 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 33% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (33%).
Total trip3h 55mSDF 18:05 to HOU 21:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.