tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Phoenix via Nashville: arrives on time 23%

  1. 18:05 SDF → 17:55 BNA
    WN 1712 · Southwest · 50m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:15 BNA → 20:50 PHX
    WN 642 · Southwest · 3h 35m · 29% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection79%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 21% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (79%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (29%).
Total trip5h 45mSDF 18:05 to PHX 20:50, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.