tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Tampa via Nashville: arrives on time 9%

  1. 18:05 SDF → 17:55 BNA
    WN 1712 · Southwest · 50m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:45 BNA → 21:35 TPA
    WN 686 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 33% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection28%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 72% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time9%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (28%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (33%).
Total trip3h 30mSDF 18:05 to TPA 21:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.