tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Norfolk via Orlando: arrives on time 14%

  1. 17:40 BWI → 20:15 MCO
    WN 172 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 47% on time, 6.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:25 MCO → 23:28 ORF
    WN 352 · Southwest · 2h 02m · 29% on time, 7.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time14%First flight not cancelled (6.9% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (7.7% are) and within 15 minutes (29%).
Total trip5h 47mBWI 17:40 to ORF 23:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.