tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → Las Vegas via Denver: arrives on time 8%

  1. 17:40 MSY → 19:45 DEN
    WN 1743 · Southwest · 3h 05m · 30% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:35 DEN → 21:30 LAS
    WN 1566 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 44% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind New Orleans). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection18%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 82% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time8%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (18%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip5h 50mMSY 17:40 to LAS 21:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.