tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → San Diego via Denver: arrives on time 35%

  1. 17:40 MSY → 19:45 DEN
    WN 1743 · Southwest · 3h 05m · 30% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 45m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 DEN → 23:00 SAN
    WN 1704 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind New Orleans). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 60 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 45m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip7h 15mMSY 17:40 to SAN 23:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.