tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Buffalo via Orlando: arrives on time 16%

  1. 16:30 BWI → 19:00 MCO
    WN 176 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 42% on time, 4.1% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:55 MCO → 22:38 BUF
    WN 4832 · Southwest · 2h 42m · 42% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection40%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 60% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (4.1% are) × connection made (40%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip6h 07mBWI 16:30 to BUF 22:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.