tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 13%

  1. 20:25 DTW → 20:35 MDW
    WN 1782 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 39% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 MDW → 00:12 SFO +1 day
    WN 2893 · Southwest · 4h 42m · 51% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection27%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 73% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (27%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip6h 47mDTW 20:25 to SFO 00:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.