tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → San Antonio via Chicago: arrives on time 10%

  1. 20:25 DTW → 20:35 MDW
    WN 1782 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 39% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:25 MDW → 00:20 SAT +1 day
    WN 3229 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 47% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection21%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 79% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time10%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (21%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip4h 40mDTW 20:25 to SAT 00:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.