tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Nashville via Chicago: arrives on time 27%

  1. 20:25 DTW → 20:35 MDW
    WN 1782 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 39% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:40 MDW → 23:05 BNA
    WN 4091 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 65% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 3h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip3h 45mDTW 20:25 to BNA 23:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.