tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Memphis via Chicago: arrives on time 9%

  1. 20:25 DTW → 20:35 MDW
    WN 1782 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 39% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:25 MDW → 23:10 MEM
    WN 4100 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 45% on time, 3.4% cancelled

Total trip 3h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection21%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 79% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time9%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (21%) × second flight not cancelled (3.4% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip3h 40mDTW 20:25 to MEM 23:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.