tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → Chicago via Houston: arrives on time 11%

  1. 18:40 MSY → 19:55 HOU
    WN 1810 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 42% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Houston (HOU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:45 HOU → 23:10 MDW
    WN 2044 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 38% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection32%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 68% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time11%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (32%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (38%).
Total trip4h 30mMSY 18:40 to MDW 23:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.