tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → Tampa via Houston: arrives on time 28%

  1. 18:40 MSY → 19:55 HOU
    WN 1810 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 42% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Houston (HOU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:55 HOU → 00:10 TPA +1 day
    WN 2090 · Southwest · 2h 12m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection42%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 58% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (42%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip4h 27mMSY 18:40 to TPA 00:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.