tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → Miami via Houston: arrives on time 14%

  1. 18:40 MSY → 19:55 HOU
    WN 1810 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 42% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Houston (HOU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 HOU → 00:30 MIA +1 day
    WN 4859 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 27% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time14%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (27%).
Total trip4h 45mMSY 18:40 to MIA 00:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.