tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Nashville via Dallas: arrives on time 7%

  1. 15:10 SFO → 20:45 DAL
    WN 1859 · Southwest · 3h 35m · 17% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Dallas (DAL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:38 DAL → 23:25 BNA
    WN 1278 · Southwest · 1h 48m · 45% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection16%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 84% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time7%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (16%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip6h 16mSFO 15:10 to BNA 23:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.