tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Austin via Dallas: arrives on time 8%

  1. 15:10 SFO → 20:45 DAL
    WN 1859 · Southwest · 3h 35m · 17% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Dallas (DAL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:45 DAL → 22:50 AUS
    WN 1515 · Southwest · 1h 00m · 46% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection17%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 83% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time8%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (17%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip5h 35mSFO 15:10 to AUS 22:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.