tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → New York via Denver: arrives on time 19%

  1. 10:55 SNA → 14:10 DEN
    WN 187 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 77% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:05 DEN → 20:50 LGA
    WN 4233 · Southwest · 3h 45m · 32% on time, 7.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (7.7% are) and within 15 minutes (32%).
Total trip6h 55mSNA 10:55 to LGA 20:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.