tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fort Lauderdale → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 19%

  1. 18:20 FLL → 20:25 MDW
    WN 1870 · Southwest · 3h 05m · 39% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 MDW → 00:12 SFO +1 day
    WN 2893 · Southwest · 4h 42m · 51% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip8h 52mFLL 18:20 to SFO 00:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.