tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → El Paso via Los Angeles: arrives on time 25%

  1. 18:00 MDW → 20:20 LAX
    WN 188 · Southwest · 4h 20m · 47% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 25m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:45 LAX → 00:42 ELP +1 day
    WN 2396 · Southwest · 1h 58m · 35% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 40 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 25m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (35%).
Total trip7h 43mMDW 18:00 to ELP 00:42, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.