tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Louisville via Nashville: arrives on time 14%

  1. 17:40 HOU → 19:35 BNA
    WN 1957 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:30 BNA → 22:25 SDF
    WN 671 · Southwest · 58m · 32% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 23 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection42%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 58% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time14%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (42%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (32%).
Total trip3h 48mHOU 17:40 to SDF 22:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.