tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Houston via Tampa: arrives on time 28%

  1. 17:05 BWI → 19:45 TPA
    WN 1997 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 61% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Tampa (TPA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:40 TPA → 21:55 HOU
    WN 4025 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 52% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip5h 50mBWI 17:05 to HOU 21:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.