tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → New Orleans via Las Vegas: arrives on time 20%

  1. 18:25 HOU → 19:35 LAS
    WN 2003 · Southwest · 3h 10m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 LAS → 01:55 MSY +1 day
    WN 2281 · Southwest · 3h 30m · 48% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip7h 30mHOU 18:25 to MSY 01:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.