tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Tampa via Chicago: arrives on time 15%

  1. 13:30 HOU → 15:55 MDW
    WN 2041 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 33% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:15 MDW → 20:50 TPA
    WN 4520 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 29% on time, 7.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (7.7% are) and within 15 minutes (29%).
Total trip6h 20mHOU 13:30 to TPA 20:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.