tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Jacksonville via Chicago: arrives on time 15%

  1. 15:58 HOU → 18:22 MDW
    WN 2042 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 36% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:20 MDW → 22:35 JAX
    WN 2792 · Southwest · 2h 20m · 51% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection31%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 69% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (31%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip5h 42mHOU 15:58 to JAX 22:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.