tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 46%

  1. 15:58 HOU → 18:22 MDW
    WN 2042 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 36% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 08m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 MDW → 00:12 SFO +1 day
    WN 2893 · Southwest · 4h 42m · 51% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 143 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 08m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip10h 14mHOU 15:58 to SFO 00:12, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.