tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 14%

  1. 15:58 HOU → 18:22 MDW
    WN 2042 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 36% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 23m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 MDW → 22:55 LGA
    WN 4120 · Southwest · 2h 12m · 27% on time, 8.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 23m layover.
Arrives on time14%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (8.8% are) and within 15 minutes (27%).
Total trip5h 59mHOU 15:58 to LGA 22:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.