tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 37%

  1. 15:58 HOU → 18:22 MDW
    WN 2042 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 36% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 23m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 MDW → 21:55 SDF
    WN 4597 · Southwest · 1h 12m · 70% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 23m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 59mHOU 15:58 to SDF 21:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.