tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Ontario → Nashville via Sacramento: arrives on time 51%

  1. 20:50 ONT → 22:12 SMF
    WN 208 · Southwest · 1h 22m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Sacramento (SMF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:05 SMF → 05:10 BNA +1 day
    WN 3759 · Southwest · 4h 05m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip6h 20mONT 20:50 to BNA 05:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.