tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tulsa → Chicago via Orlando: arrives on time 24%

  1. 17:18 TUL → 21:05 MCO
    WN 2091 · Southwest · 2h 48m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 MCO → 22:00 MDW
    WN 4762 · Southwest · 2h 50m · 50% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip6h 32mTUL 17:18 to MDW 22:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.