tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Sacramento via Las Vegas: arrives on time 19%

  1. 20:10 ATL → 21:30 LAS
    WN 210 · Southwest · 4h 20m · 28% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 LAS → 00:18 SMF +1 day
    WN 4226 · Southwest · 1h 38m · 42% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip7h 08mATL 20:10 to SMF 00:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.