tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Indianapolis → Chicago via Tampa: arrives on time 36%

  1. 19:25 IND → 21:40 TPA
    WN 2140 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 62% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Tampa (TPA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 TPA → 00:10 MDW +1 day
    WN 4035 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 69% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip5h 45mIND 19:25 to MDW 00:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.