tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Islip → Orlando via Baltimore: arrives on time 43%

  1. 12:30 ISP → 13:45 BWI
    WN 2143 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 79% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 36m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 15:21 BWI → 17:53 MCO
    F9 3663 · Frontier · 2h 30m · 72% on time, 1.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 1h 36m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (1.2% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 21mISP 12:30 to MCO 17:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.