tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jacksonville → Chicago via Denver: arrives on time 24%

  1. 17:20 JAX → 18:50 DEN
    WN 2161 · Southwest · 3h 30m · 21% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 00m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:50 DEN → 00:15 MDW +1 day
    WN 1615 · Southwest · 2h 22m · 36% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 75 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 00m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (36%).
Total trip7h 52mJAX 17:20 to MDW 00:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.