tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jacksonville → St Louis via Chicago: arrives on time 41%

  1. 19:02 JAX → 20:30 MDW
    WN 2164 · Southwest · 2h 28m · 62% on time, 6.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:35 MDW → 22:50 STL
    WN 2905 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 64% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (6.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip4h 48mJAX 19:02 to STL 22:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.