tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jacksonville → Houston via Chicago: arrives on time 28%

  1. 19:02 JAX → 20:30 MDW
    WN 2164 · Southwest · 2h 28m · 62% on time, 6.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:40 MDW → 00:12 HOU +1 day
    WN 954 · Southwest · 2h 32m · 42% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (6.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip6h 10mJAX 19:02 to HOU 00:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.