tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Reno → San Jose via Las Vegas: arrives on time 36%

  1. 14:45 RNO → 16:15 LAS
    WN 2184 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 72% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:10 LAS → 18:40 SJC
    WN 5054 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 60% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 3h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip3h 55mRNO 14:45 to SJC 18:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.