tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Sarasota/Bradenton via Nashville: arrives on time 25%

  1. 17:05 MDW → 18:35 BNA
    WN 2199 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 62% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 BNA → 22:45 SRQ
    WN 2700 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 38% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 23 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (38%).
Total trip4h 40mMDW 17:05 to SRQ 22:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.