tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Sacramento via Los Angeles: arrives on time 6%

  1. 18:45 DEN → 20:15 LAX
    WN 2217 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 16% on time, 3.5% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:05 LAX → 22:30 SMF
    WN 4921 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 1 h behind Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection11%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 89% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time6%First flight not cancelled (3.5% are) × connection made (11%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip4h 45mDEN 18:45 to SMF 22:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.